Gallup's new poll, Hillary/Condi Polarize Electorate, is out. And I haven't seen or heard a thing about it in the news. It doesn't take a conspiracy theorist to come up with a short list of reasons why. Quoting from the poll summary (emphases added):
A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds the two women who are most frequently mentioned as potential presidential candidates of their respective parties are each opposed by about half the electorate. Among registered voters, 48% would consider voting for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for president in 2008, including 16% who say they would "definitely" vote for her. Fifty-one percent say they would "definitely" not vote for Clinton.
Think about that for a minute. Just more than half the electorate would "definitely not" vote for Hilary.
Rice, who has explicitly and repeatedly stated she will not run for president, has better results.
Slightly more positive feelings are found for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Fifty-two percent would consider voting for her for president, including 14% who would "definitely" commit. Forty-six percent say they would "definitely" not vote for Rice.
The rest of the poll results break pretty much as one might expect. More Republicans (89%) would definitely not vote for Clinton than Democrats oppose Rice (65%).
In some surprising results, more independents (50%) oppose Rice than oppose Clinton (41%). But what's even more suprising is:
About the same number of each party say they would definitely not vote for their own party's female candidate -- 19% of Republicans "definitely" against Rice, and 20% of Democrats "definitely" against Clinton.
Things are not looking good for Hillary. Just more than half of registered voters would not vote for Hillary, and nearly one-fifth of her presumed Democratic base would not vote for her. Ouch.
And if anything, the last two election cycles have demonstrated that you cannot win elections with only eighty percent of your base.
Disclaimer: Hillary has neither explicitly said she's not running for President, nor declared her candidacy. But very few people think she's not seriously considering running and/or has plans to run.
These numbers have to have her thinking much harder about it all.
Posted by Clifton at January 26, 2006 05:47 AM | TrackBackI am fairly Liberal, and I personally like Hillary just fine. However, I must admit that I shudder to think about her running. It would be so polarizing, it would just be a mess and there's no way she'd win.
Please let her rethink.
Posted by: Mimi at January 26, 2006 02:02 PMThanks for fixing that. It hung on the "verify" for forever.
Blush.
Posted by: Mimi at January 26, 2006 03:41 PM