Taking a look at the demographics of the vote reveals some important, and disturbing, trends.
In terms of party affiliation, Democrats and Republicans both stuck by their parties. But the Republicans were marginally more loyal. Democrats brought home 89% of their base, Republicans brought home 93%.
Minorities still break decisively for Democrats: 89% of blacks, 55% of Hispanics and 59% of Asians. Whites break 57% for Republicans. Race still divides us, but why this is the case may not be clear. Is it part of the deep cultural structures in America? Do the Democrats exacerbate the divisions toward their own political ends? Are Republicans, without whose support and efforts, there would have been no civil rights act, now carelessly ignorant of the issues of race?
Those who graduated high school and had some college or were college graduates tended to be Republican, though all the margins were close. Those who did not graduate high school barely tipped Democrat, but those who had post graduate work were the biggest Democratic margin (55% to 43%).
While it's true that women went Democrat by a margin of 52% to 45%, and men went Republican by a margin of 54% to 45%, that doesn't tell the whole story. Married men and women went Republican (59% and 54% respectively) with wide margins. Marrieds generally went Republican by a margin of 56% to 43%. Singles went Democrat 59% to 37%, with single men going Democrat to the tune of 53% and unmarried women by 63%. So the gender gap wasn't so simple as it looked: it depended more on marital status than on gender.
Union members (61%), gays and lesbians (77%), and political independents went Democrat, though the political independents were only marginally more Republican at 50% to 47%. White evangelicals broke decisively Republican at 77%.
In terms of religion, the Republican party garnered 60% of the vote of those who attended religious services weekly, while those who only occasionally or never attended services went Democrat by 53% and 64% respectively.
With all that in mind, then, it's not surprising that the single most important issue on voters minds this year was moral values at 22%, followed closely by the economy and jobs (20%) and terrorism (19%). Of those who listed moral values as the top concern, 79% went Republican, while those who ranked the economy and jobs first went Democrat to the tune of 80%.
In other words, the lines of division in this country run clearly in conformity with moral and religious values and race. The Democrats clearly appeal to unmarrieds, the nonreligious, and those with secular values, as well as minority voters. The Republicans clearly draw in marrieds, the religious and those of conservative and/or traditional values, as well as whites.
The religious and racial divisions in our country are real and troublesome. But they are made only more so in that they align with the political divide in this country as well. Political, religious and racial divisions line up almost perfectly, and it is this, not any single candidate, which is the source of our country's division.
Posted by Clifton at November 4, 2004 09:35 AM | TrackBackAll of this is complicated by the reality that many people hold views consistant with opposing platforms. I am a pro-life pacifist. I am anti-big business. I am pro-small business. I am a Baptist minister who thinks that the separation of church and state is being challenged by the existing administration.
It is a complicated mess. The duality is growing stronger and stronger. We are drawing lines. But I wonder how many of those lines are concessions and not truly representative of how people really think.
Will Bush, as an example, assume that all those who voted for him affirm his platform? Doubtful, but the "mandate" language makes me wonder just what kind of posture they will strike.
Posted by: AngloBaptist at November 4, 2004 09:07 AMTripp:
It's not that people don't hold competing views within themselves, but rather which ones guide their actions. It's my contention that for the "moral values" folks, life and marriage issues were much more important than jobs, economy and war criticisms.
Posted by: Clifton D. Healy at November 4, 2004 09:09 AMHmm...
I think that the issues are the same, but we disagree about what makes for a marriage. Liberals vote their values. But this is semantics to be certain.
To vote for same-sex unions is to vote against Bush. Same effect as voting *for* the other issue.
Now, where abortion is concerned, you are right. People prioritize differently.
Posted by: AngloBaptist at November 4, 2004 10:39 AMI sincerely don't think there's any real disagreement as to the semantics of "values." A majority of the electorate mean by values traditional or conservative moral values: man-woman marriage, protection of the unborn, and so forth.
This is not to say that the non-Bush crowd don't have values--I know you, you do! But that their values do not reflect the majority of the electorate.
Posted by: Clifton D. Healy at November 4, 2004 10:47 AMThese numbers seem to me to be pointing to diversity rather than division. If we don't like what we see, the natural opposite end would be complete homogeneity in the electorate: everyone believes the same thing about every issue, and the winning candidate gets 100 percent of the popular vote.
Obviously, that's not realistic. The country always has been and always will be diverse on social and moral issues, economic issues, war and foreign policy, etc. It only looks like "the nation is divided" because we have a two-party system, so the hard numbers will come down into one of only two camps.
Posted by: Darren at November 4, 2004 01:25 PMI think you're missing the real story on the racial demographics. Yes, black voters went for Kerry by a large margin, but in the two swing states with the most electoral votes, Florida and Ohio, Bush picked up 6% and 7% of the black vote over 2000. To cause that large of a margin of any demographic to switch allegiance is huge. It's not going to happen overnight, but the Republicans are starting to gain ground. He picked up black voters in every state I looked at, including the blue states.
And, yes Kerry won a majority among Hispanic voters, but Bush picked up an additional 9% over what he got in 2000. He won the Hispanic vote in Florida (got 56%) and Texas (59%), picked up 12% in New Mexico, 6% in New York, 4% in California, 9% in Nevada, and in general, the Republican party has been gaining ground among Hispanic voters.
The story that needs to be told is not that Bush didn't win the black and Hispanic vote, it's that he made gains, especially among Hispanic voters. I think that if the Republican party handles it right, they're going to make even bigger gains in '08.
Posted by: kathryn at November 4, 2004 11:33 PMKathryn:
Thank you. You provided an important corrective. I very much appreciate that.
Posted by: Clifton D. Healy at November 5, 2004 05:59 AMMuchos gracias
Posted by: kathryn at November 6, 2004 01:34 AM