This is Life!: Revolutions Around the Cruciform Axis

Pew Research Clears Up the "Moral Values" Votes

Maggie Gallagher, in her NRO article today, pointed me to the Pew Research Center's Summary of Findings for their quadrennial post-election 2004 survey.

Reading from the summary is very revealing. I quote from the summary:

Voters and the Issues

Since the election, there has been considerable debate over the relative importance of moral values to voters. More than one-in-five (22%) of those questioned by the National Election Pool on behalf of the Associated Press and the major networks cited moral values as the most important issue in their vote, from a list of seven items on the exit poll questionnaire. In Pew's post-election survey, half of the respondents were presented with the same list of issues as on the exit poll ­ and asked to choose which was most important ­ while half were asked an open-ended version of the question.

Among those offered the seven-item list, a plurality of 27% selected moral values, followed by 22% who chose Iraq and 21% who selected the economy and jobs. Terrorism was chosen by 14%; education and health care were chosen by 4% each and taxes by 3% . . . .

The responses were significantly different among those who were not offered a fixed list of choices. The war in Iraq was mentioned as the single most important issue by a similar number (25%), but the economy and jobs were mentioned by only 12%; and only 9% mentioned terrorism. Notably, just 9% used the terms "moral values," "morals," or "values." Specific social issues ­ including abortion, gay marriage, and stem cell research ­ were volunteered by 3%, while another 2% cited the candidates' morals.

So, unsurprisingly, an open-ended survey question yields differing results from a closed list. One cannot conclude, of course, that the open-ended question is somehow a more authentic response. In fact, if you aggregate the specific and general terms in the open-ended question, moral values add up to 14%, outranking both terrorism and the economy. Only the war in Iraq exceeded the aggregate.

Beyond that, however, the survey notes a very important distinction:

Regardless of how the question is asked, the poll shows that Bush and Kerry voters are far apart in their issue priorities. In both the open and closed formats, moral values are the most important issue to Bush voters ­ 44% selected it from the seven-item list, while 27% volunteered moral values or a related topic in the open format. In both forms of the question, terrorism and homeland security are the next most important issue for Bush voters. No Bush voters in the open-ended format mentioned education, and virtually none mentioned health care.

For Kerry voters, the format makes a difference in the relative ordering of the issues, though in both versions Iraq and economy eclipse other issues in importance. When presented with a list of seven items, about equal numbers of Kerry voters chose economy/jobs (36%) and Iraq (34%). In the open-ended format, nearly twice as many volunteered the war in Iraq (39%) as mentioned an economic issue (21%). Just 2% of Kerry voters volunteer any topic related to moral values, and even fewer mention terrorism as most important to their vote.

Thus, despite all the punditry, the issue or group of issues that moved Bush voters, and gave him the plurality, are moral issues generally, and gay marriage, abortion and embryonic stem cell research specifically. By contrast, Kerry voters cast an eye to economic interests and Iraq.

But Kerry supporters and other blue state pundits want to assert that moral values is too vague a term, and it doesn't necessarily mean just right wing causes. That may well be the case. But what did the voters think the phrase "moral values" meant?

Defining Moral Values

The survey asked voters who were given the list of issues to describe, in their own words, "what comes to mind when you think about 'moral values'?" Among voters who chose moral values as most important from the list of seven issues, about half gave a response that mentioned a specific issue. More than four-in-ten (44%) defined the phrase specifically in terms of social issues, including abortion (28%) homosexuality and gay marriage (29%), or stem cell research (4%). A few other issues also were mentioned, including poverty, economic inequality, and the like.

But the definition of moral values is not limited to policy references. Nearly a quarter of respondents (23%) who cited moral values as important explained their thinking in terms of the personal characteristics of the candidates, including honesty and integrity (cited by 9%). Almost one-in-five (18%) explicitly mentioned religion, Christianity, God, or the Bible. Another 17% answered in terms of traditional values, using such language as "family values," "right and wrong," or "the way people live their lives."

People who did not choose moral values from the list of issues were also asked what the term meant to them. The pattern of responses was quite different from those who said moral values were an important consideration. Fewer mentioned a specific issue, candidate quality, or general religious theme; more answered in general terms, and 12% explicitly protested the imposition of others' values on them, said the idea was being used as a "wedge" against Democrats, or otherwise expressed a negative reaction to the phrase.

In other words, even among those who did not choose "moral values" as the most important issue determining their vote, the consensus of what the term "moral values" met was fully in line with the "moral values voters." In fact, the majority of those who did not choose "moral values" as their determining vote, consistently defined "moral values" along traditionalist lines, or within the same parameters as the "moral values voters." Keep in mind that a significant number (almost one-fifth) of those who did not select "moral values" as their determining issue, had a negative reaction to the term. A mere fifteen percent of those who did not select "moral values" indicated that the term meant nothing or they didn't know what it meant.

What are "moral values" then? The upholding of the traditional structure of marriage as one man and one women for life, the protection of the life of the unborn, and the rejection of scientific experimentation on human embryos. Significantly, it also included honesty and integrity, or character matters, in the candidates.

So, despite all the nay-saying and explaining away of the exit polls, the Pew Research has done an important job in documenting that moral values did, indeed, determine the election, and that those moral values are, indeed, what most of us already knew: the traditional values of marriage, family and character.

Posted by Clifton at November 23, 2004 09:35 AM | TrackBack