There's been a bunch of talk about how Bush "only" won 51% of the vote, compared to Kerry's 48%. And although Bush won more votes than any president in history, Kerry did win more votes than Reagan did in his first term. So, the argument goes, one cannot build a mandate off only 3.5 million voters, or, heck, off some 70,000 voters in Ohio.
One is also pressed to delicately remind "no mandaters" that Clinton's first term saw more Republican and Reform voters arrayed against him than voters that were for him. How many more voters voted for someone other than Clinton? 13,936,923. But let's call it fourteen million even. Fifty-seven percent of the country didn't want Clinton. In 1994, of course, it was clear Clinton didn't have a mandate. Even the 1996 election saw Clinton winning only by 118,200 votes (over the Republican/Reform aggregate). A plurality of 0.1%. Yes, a tenth of one percent. Anywho . . .
Much, of course, has been made of the "moral values" voters and evangelicals who turned out to support Bush and give him his clear and decisive election victory. I, myself, have made much of these facts.
But before we dismiss Bush as not having a mandate, let's take another look at those voter demographics.
More than a third (almost two-fifths) of union members, thirty-eight percent, supported Bush. Nearly a fourth (23%) of gays, lesbians and bisexuals voted Bush. Almost half of independents (47%) pulled the lever for Bush. Although just a bit more than a tenth of blacks voted for Bush, Bush increased his support among blacks by two percent from 2000. More than two-fifths (42%) of Hispanics voted for Bush, an increase of seven percent (I think). And Asians were right along with Hispanics at 41%.
And the youth vote? Well, despite the fact that millions more youth were registered by entertainment stars, they remained the same percentage as 2000. Of course, this was a numerical increase, since voter turnout was huge this year. But of those new voters, 44%, voted Bush. Yes, the majority broke Kerry's way, but the youth vote is not the huge Democratic vote cache everyone thought they were. Indeed, except for the youth vote, all age groups preferred Bush over Kerry.
As I've said, much has been made over the evangelicals and Catholics who gave Bush the victory, but those who only occasionally attended religious services voted Bush to the tune of 46%, and even those who never went to religious services voted just more than a third (34%) for Bush.
Given that Bush was able to draw into his electoral tent not only the greater number of voters, but also a vast and diverse coalition of voters--which transcends the blue/red divide--it seems more than reasonable to conclude Bush has a mandate.
Posted by Clifton at November 8, 2004 10:56 AM | TrackBack