The watching of this debate was made much more enjoyable by the gracious presence of my liberal friend, Tripp, and my Democratic friend, Justin. Anna missed most of the debate because she had a meeting with fellow children's book writers and illustrators in Wilmette. That left me car-less at home with Sofie. And Tripp and Justin decided to crash the party. I'm glad they did.
Well, you'll notice the quotation marks went back up in the post title. Geez. Back to talking points. Back to scripts. Back to little actual exchange. All the debates should have been townhall meeting style.
Kerry remained consistent both in his debating ability and in his dogged determination to not say anything new. One mercy: we only heard "I have a plan" a few times. His debate coach must have threatened to take away his snowboard if he said it more than five times. "Senator Kerry!" "Reporting for duty, sir!" "How many times did you say you had a plan?" "Seven times, sir!" "Drop and give me twenty!" "Sir, yes, sir!" If it's losing ground in a debate to go back and answer a previous question or respond to a previous attack, then Kerry, though consistent, wasn't as good as in the first debate, though he was a bit better than the second. Still, it was all rerun. Nothing knew. He did get the Soprano soundbyte in, but I don't think it will play that well, since it's a bit too-cliched and doesn't speak to any specific thing.
Bush was definitely better in this debate than the first, and, having thought about it, was better in style than the second debate. I still think Bush was better in substance in debate two, but in this third debate he was not only self-possessed (style), he had the facts and figures and direct responses to Kerry he couldn't seem to must in debate one. And Bush definitely landed more substantive soundbytes. They were both memborable and specific. My favorite: "A plan is not a litany of complaints. And a plan is not to lay out programs you can't pay for." Unfortunately, his coaching on job questions was blindingly evident: "Don't talk about jobs, talk about education." I thought that this, though a valid point to make, was a big loss of opportunity for Bush. The actual economic figures are robust and good, despite some areas of concern. Unemployment is the lowest it's been in some time even if the jobs being created are not as many in bulk as in other fiscal periods. Further, I think Bush should have touted the mistaken basis for the jobloss claim: the report only focuses on employer payroll, it doesn't focus on entrepeneurial job creation (small-business, and home-based work). I don't have actual figures to hand, but these numbers are solid. And these numbers play to the middle class where the jobless numbers have hit.
Be that as it may, neither candidate did as well as in the two previous debates. Kerry was best in debate one; Bush in debate two. Last night, Kerry looked tired, almost as if even he no longer believed he had "the plan." Bush looked invigorated and controlled, but missed some opportunities to tamp down Kerry. But given that the DNC was saying Kerry would mop the floor with Bush . . . um, I'm going to have to dock Kerry points. Bush did better than expected, but not as well as hoped.
Immediately after the debate, my gut instinct was to say that Kerry had won the debate. Tripp didn't think so. I can't remember whether Justin voiced his opinion on the winner, but I would guess he would argue for a Kerry win. After thinking about it, I wondered if last night wasn't a draw.
But then I got to thinking in terms of perception. Bush got schelacked in the first debate. Then came back and gave what for in debate two. Last night was Kerry's to end with on a dominant note and in his supposedly stronger area. It was his to end with: leave the American people with an image that could counter the coming attacks and could build a lead in the polls. I don't think he did that. I think the game stayed even, which leaves the Bush team openings for more hammering. I may be wrong in this, but I don't think Kerry will build a solid gain and maintain a lead out of this. He may get a little bump, as he did after the first debate. But that bump returned to the status quo fairly quickly. And the remaining three weeks is a long time.
So, with these additional considerations in mind . . . 2004 Presidential Debates: Kerry 1, Bush 2. See you at the polls on 2 Nov.
Posted by Clifton at October 14, 2004 06:18 AM | TrackBack