From LexisNexis Campaign 2004 come some interesting results.
First, let's identify the sample:
In this poll, 36 percent of those interviewed after the debate said they were Republican and 32 percent each said they were Democrats or independents.
And what were the candidates' preference numbers?
Before the debate, 52 percent of those interviewed said they planned to vote for Bush, 44 percent for Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.
By contrast, the last CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, taken September 24-26, had 53 percent of all registered voters choosing Bush, 42 percent preferring Kerry and 3 percent favoring Nader.
Okay, so what was the judgement on who won the debate?
Overall, 53 percent of Thursday's debate watchers interviewed said Kerry did the better job, compared with 37 percent who favored Bush.
Kerry's chief strength: 60 percent said he expressed himself more clearly than Bush did.
Pretty much the same as mine. However, check out this next stat:
But 54 percent said Bush would be tougher as president, compared with 37 percent listed Kerry as tougher. And by a 48 percent to 41 percent margin, debate watchers said Bush was more likable.
Now that's interesting. Despite Bush's "deer in the headlights" look in the debate, people apparently must have considered what Bush has done when they attempted to interpret his words.
And likable? I think those honest smirks and eyerolls are working just fine. Don't change 'em, Mr. Bush.
Despite his pauses and hesitations, more respondents believed Bush than believed Kerry.
Of those polled, 50 percent said Bush was more believable and 45 percent said they were more likely to believe Kerry.
But despite Kerry's hammering on the grand colossal Iraq mistake diversion--
On Iraq, 54 percent of debate watchers polled before Thursday's night's matchup said Bush would handle Iraq better than Kerry.
Did the debate change many minds? Not according to the poll.
After the debate, the same percentage of those interviewed -- 54 -- said Bush would be better on Iraq than Kerry.
Maybe they saw through Kerry's shiny happy presentation last night.
Although Kerry made a better impression on some basic measures and may have been successful at re-introducing himself to voters, the poll showed he might not have changed many minds on Iraq and military matters.
Well, the debates are so stage-managed that it's a wonder we got the sort of differences from the candidates that we did last night.
Posted by Clifton at October 1, 2004 09:30 AM | TrackBack